The former driver’s prediction
“Porsche? No thanks, we’ll do it ourselves.” That, in essence, was how the talks between Red Bull and Porsche unfolded when everything appeared to be in place for a partnership ahead of the 2026 season. That year will mark the introduction of the new power units, without the MGU-H and powered entirely by sustainable biofuels.
Rather than giving up 50 percent of the shares and losing majority control, Red Bull – with Christian Horner playing a central role in the decision – chose to establish its own engine division. The goal was clear: to become a fully independent manufacturer and no longer rely on external power unit suppliers.
This bold move could, however, lead to a challenging start, much like what happened in 2014 with Renault. The difference is that Renault was far from a newcomer, while Red Bull Powertrains Limited will be entering uncharted territory. Back in 2014, Red Bull came off an extraordinary run of eight consecutive world titles across the 2010–2013 seasons with Sebastian Vettel, yet still managed to claim three victories in the second half of the year thanks to Daniel Ricciardo.
Johnny Herbert believes that Red Bull could face similar, if not greater, difficulties in 2026 precisely because of its brand-new in-house engine. “From what I understand, Red Bull will have some difficulties because of the power unit they have available,” Herbert explained when speaking to NewBettingSites. “Throughout Formula 1 history, every time there has been a major rules change, there has always been one team that dominated with an advantage of one or two seconds.”
The former driver also pointed to Mercedes as the likely benchmark when the new era begins. “Mercedes was already being tipped as having a big advantage a year ago, and they will probably be the reference point at the start of the season, with McLaren not too far behind,” Johnny Herbert added.
Johnny Herbert’s strong prediction highlights the enormous risk Red Bull took by turning down a partnership with an established giant like Porsche to pursue engine independence. While the 2014 parallel is relevant, the challenge facing RBPT—designing an entirely new, highly complex power unit from scratch—is unprecedented for the team. If Mercedes can nail the new MGU-K focused regulations, as Herbert predicts, Red Bull’s period of dominance could be over immediately, forcing Max Verstappen into a difficult period of reliance on a fledgling engine supplier. **Do you agree with Johnny Herbert that Red Bull’s in-house power unit is the team’s greatest weakness heading into the 2026 F1 season? Share your thoughts below!**
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