Why Red Bull could have won in Brazil: the two key factors
In the 21st round of the 2025 F1 season, Red Bull had the potential to win, even though on Sunday they started from the pitlane. Imagine if they had nailed the RB21 setup from the start. The race response was superb, but working correctly at the factory, it would not have been crazy to say that Max Verstappen could have left Brazil recovering points on McLaren. Let’s see why.
Red Bull got the strategy right for the race
The first key factor was the revised setup, combined with cooler temperatures. The Red Bull weekend was far from perfect. A single practice session made finding the ideal setup very difficult, as confirmed by team principal Laurent Mekies. This led to a weak Saturday performance but a strong recovery on Sunday.
In the qualifying session at the Interlagos circuit, Max Verstappen even exited in Q1. The RB21 is a car with huge potential but a narrower setup window compared to the McLaren. One of the strengths of the MCL39 is its versatility, which consistently allows finding near-perfect balance. After the sprint race, taking the risk of radically changing the car setup didn’t pay off.
They went in a direction they thought promising, which ultimately proved disastrous. However, this allowed them to start from the pitlane, homologate a new power unit useful for upcoming races, and change the car setup. But there’s another interesting factor beyond the mere setup adjustment that influenced performance.
The variables that awakened the RB21
We expected a more competitive RB21, but once again, track conditions and temperatures played a crucial role. Cars of this generation are extremely sensitive to tires, and the Austrian car was no exception. Race conditions increased overall grip, making the car much more balanced.
Listening to the team radios, it was clear Max was no longer complaining about any specific car behavior. He experienced some understeer, but overall the car was very quick. At the end of the race, Verstappen confirmed that the environmental conditions over the 300 km race helped his comeback.
The second factor was the initial pitstop, an “unexpected advantage” for Max: an early puncture. He had started on Hard tires, hoping to extend the stint and overcut a group of slower cars. However, the hard compound proved unsuitable, so the puncture allowed a switch to Mediums, the better tire for the race.
Moreover, the stop occurred under a Virtual Safety Car, effectively halving the pit time. Estimating his pace, Max needed only around a tenth of a second per lap less than Lando Norris’s MCL39 to try and challenge for the lead, taking into account the improvement over race distance.
Red Bull could have done it with greater technical precision
Ideally, Max could have passed Kimi Antonelli earlier and challenged Norris directly. It should be noted that Norris was managing his own pace, though by the end of the race he admitted that Max’s pace was phenomenal, likely faster than his MCL39, and that Verstappen could have even won if circumstances had been slightly different.
All this shows that in a weekend where Max officially said goodbye to his championship hopes, the RB21 still had the potential to fight at the front despite starting from the pitlane. Without the team’s early errors, followed by the group’s excellent reaction, recovering points on McLaren was more than possible.
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