F1 | Did Barcelona shakedown confirm Mercedes as the big favorite? Brackley denies
The Barcelona shakedown has fueled early speculation about which teams will start the 2026 F1 season strongest. At the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren ended up separated by just two-tenths of a second, making the initial performance picture extremely tight.
The numbers at the end of the test
By the end of the Barcelona test, Mercedes had clearly led in terms of reliability, while Lewis Hamilton topped the timing sheets with the fastest lap in the Ferrari SF26. Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren were all clustered within two-tenths, from Hamilton’s 1’16.348 to Lando Norris’ 1’16.594, with George Russell’s 1’16.445 from the day before sandwiched in between. Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, meanwhile, recorded a 1’17.586, somewhat behind, though the RB22’s shakedown performance still surprised Mercedes personnel.
Mercedes challenges the “favorite” label
Sky Sports UK journalist Craig Slater reported that a key figure within the Mercedes organization disagrees with the narrative that the team is the clear favorite heading into the 2026 World Championship: “The situation according to Mercedes sees the four top teams from 2025 very close together,” Slater explained. “Mercedes denies being the favorite and is actually very impressed by Red Bull.”
From McLaren’s perspective, however, Mercedes appears to be slightly ahead. “McLaren believes Mercedes is leading, not just because it fully understands the power unit, having produced it themselves. McLaren thinks Mercedes has created a very fast, all-round car and that it will be possible to reach W17-level performance over the course of the season through further development. But for now, according to McLaren, Mercedes holds a slight edge over the competition.”
The Barcelona shakedown thus shows that while Mercedes may have reliability on its side, the performance gaps between the top teams remain minimal. With development set to continue and further tests before the season opener, fans can expect a tightly contested start to the 2026 championship.
The Barcelona shakedown has effectively ignited a tactical war of words, with Mercedes attempting to pivot the “favorite” label toward a resilient Red Bull while McLaren sounds the alarm on the W17’s comprehensive speed. Despite Lewis Hamilton’s headline-grabbing pace in the Ferrari SF-26, the underlying reliability and technical cohesion demonstrated by Mercedes suggest they have mastered the initial 2026 power unit integration better than most. By maintaining a two-tenth gap across the top three teams, the data confirms a highly competitive start to the new era, yet the skepticism from Brackley regarding their own dominance hints at a deep-seated respect for Max Verstappen’s hidden potential. Ultimately, this opening skirmish in Spain proves that while the timesheets are close, the battle to define the pecking order is only just beginning, leaving fans to wonder if Mercedes is truly the car to beat or simply the best at hiding its true strength.
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