The third free practice session of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix offered further insights into the balance of power between teams, confirming what had already been seen in FP2. McLaren remain the favorites, but not with a margin that allows them to be fully comfortable. The biggest strengths of the MCL39 lie in its mechanical package, which provides excellent performance in the slower, twistier part of the Baku circuit, its traction—which is crucial on a track where aerodynamic load is limited but drivers frequently accelerate from low to medium speeds—and its superior tire temperature management. The long main straight cools the front tires by up to 40 degrees, and McLaren seem to manage these temperature cycles better than anyone else by cleverly using the brakes. This advantage has been clear all season, and in Baku it is even more noticeable.
However, McLaren are not flawless. Their aerodynamic balance is less of an advantage here because most of Baku’s corners are very similar, allowing rival teams to find a decent overall balance without major weaknesses in specific sectors. Straight-line efficiency is also not the strongest point of the MCL39 when running low-downforce setups. Despite this, Lando Norris still clocked the fastest time, making him the favorite for pole position. Oscar Piastri, on the other hand, struggled more with balancing tire temperatures and often looked unstable at the rear of the car, particularly under heavy braking where the car tended to lose composure. It remains to be seen whether qualifying will result in a McLaren front row lockout or if there is room for serious challengers.
Ferrari and Verstappen the main challengers
Challenging McLaren are Ferrari and Max Verstappen. The Dutchman made strong progress in FP3, overcoming early difficulties in the first sector and slower corners. By the end of the session, Verstappen had found a solid rhythm even in the twisty section of the track—though still behind Norris—and managed to balance tire temperatures effectively, especially in the first sector at Turns 3 and 4. The Honda power unit still seems to lack some punch in medium-speed acceleration zones, but Verstappen nonetheless looks like a real contender against Norris and Piastri. Baku has never been one of his favorite tracks, often causing him more difficulties compared to teammates, but his improvements in FP3 suggest he could play a key role in qualifying.
Hamilton searching for balance, Leclerc shows speed
At Ferrari, the most important development was the final decision to adopt a low-downforce setup for both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton. According to simulations, this setup offers the best compromise between qualifying and race pace. Initially, Hamilton seemed less comfortable after looking more balanced on Friday, but by the second half of FP3 he appeared to unlock more performance. For the seven-time world champion, braking confidence remains fundamental, and the changes made this weekend seem to help him “feel” the car better in Baku’s heavy braking zones. Ferrari’s low-downforce package recorded the highest speeds on the straights while still managing to generate strong grip from the C6 tire compound. The overnight rain washed away the rubbered-in line, which should benefit Ferrari’s setup choice as the track evolves during the weekend.
Charles Leclerc also showed excellent speed, even on used tires. Although traffic and a few mistakes on fresh tires prevented him from posting a competitive lap time, his pace confirms that he could be one of McLaren’s closest rivals for pole position. By contrast, Mercedes struggled more than expected, which is surprising given the characteristics of the Baku circuit seemed favorable to the W16 package, with its strong longitudinal acceleration.
Key factors for pole: slipstream, engine mode and wind
Ultimately, pole position may be decided by three key factors: slipstream, engine maps, and wind. The slipstream effect is especially powerful in Baku, meaning drivers will need to decide whether to rely on teammates or pick up a tow from rivals. Engine settings will also be decisive, not only for top speed on the straights but also for traction out of the corners. Finally, the wind—strong and unpredictable in Baku—could help or hinder drivers at critical moments. With all these variables in play, qualifying is set to deliver a fascinating and closely fought battle for pole position.
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